An insight across Ohio's 88 counties
Unemployment rate and the presidential vote
Across Ohio's 88 counties the 2024 Republican presidential margin does not track the unemployment rate (Spearman rho 0.12; partial rho -0.25 with log population held fixed; 0.10 without Cuyahoga and Franklin; n = 88).
Where the counties sit
One dot per county: Unemp Rate in 2024 across the bottom, the 2024 presidential margin in points up the side. Every dot links to that county's own result for that election.
The numbers behind this figure, as a table
| County | Unemp Rate, 2024 | Presidential margin, 2024 (R minus D, points) |
|---|---|---|
| adams | 6.2% | R+66.1 |
| allen | 4.5% | R+44.5 |
| ashland | 4.4% | R+50.4 |
| ashtabula | 4.3% | R+28.6 |
| athens | 5.3% | D+10.8 |
| auglaize | 3.7% | R+65.1 |
| belmont | 5.4% | R+47.6 |
| brown | 5.1% | R+61.8 |
| butler | 4.3% | R+26.5 |
| carroll | 4.9% | R+55.2 |
| champaign | 4.3% | R+51.2 |
| clark | 4.8% | R+29.8 |
| clermont | 4.2% | R+36.1 |
| clinton | 4.2% | R+55.1 |
| columbiana | 4.9% | R+49.4 |
| coshocton | 4.9% | R+52.6 |
| crawford | 4.9% | R+53.4 |
| Cuyahoga | 3.9% | D+31.7 |
| darke | 4.0% | R+65.8 |
| defiance | 4.1% | R+40.2 |
| delaware | 3.7% | R+6.7 |
| erie | 4.9% | R+14.3 |
| fairfield | 4.1% | R+24.3 |
| fayette | 4.6% | R+55.6 |
| Franklin | 4.2% | D+28.7 |
| fulton | 4.9% | R+42.8 |
| gallia | 5.3% | R+59.8 |
| geauga | 3.3% | R+24.3 |
| greene | 4.1% | R+20.0 |
| guernsey | 5.6% | R+52.4 |
| hamilton | 4.2% | D+15.0 |
| hancock | 4.0% | R+38.9 |
| hardin | 4.5% | R+55.2 |
| harrison | 5.1% | R+55.7 |
| henry | 4.8% | R+47.1 |
| highland | 4.7% | R+63.7 |
| hocking | 4.8% | R+44.6 |
| holmes | 3.3% | R+69.7 |
| huron | 5.3% | R+44.4 |
| jackson | 5.3% | R+58.4 |
| jefferson | 5.9% | R+44.4 |
| knox | 4.2% | R+45.3 |
| lake | 3.6% | R+14.5 |
| lawrence | 5.0% | R+50.9 |
| licking | 4.2% | R+30.3 |
| logan | 4.1% | R+56.7 |
| lorain | 4.0% | R+5.8 |
| lucas | 6.1% | D+12.7 |
| madison | 3.9% | R+44.1 |
| mahoning | 5.0% | R+9.5 |
| marion | 4.5% | R+41.7 |
| medina | 3.3% | R+25.0 |
| meigs | 6.9% | R+57.4 |
| mercer | 3.3% | R+67.2 |
| miami | 4.0% | R+45.5 |
| monroe | 6.3% | R+60.3 |
| montgomery | 4.6% | D+0.5 |
| morgan | 5.6% | R+53.6 |
| morrow | 4.3% | R+56.2 |
| muskingum | 4.7% | R+44.3 |
| noble | 6.6% | R+65.1 |
| ottawa | 6.2% | R+25.3 |
| paulding | 4.1% | R+56.8 |
| perry | 5.2% | R+54.9 |
| pickaway | 4.2% | R+49.0 |
| pike | 5.6% | R+54.0 |
| portage | 4.4% | R+15.7 |
| preble | 4.0% | R+59.6 |
| putnam | 3.6% | R+69.4 |
| richland | 5.0% | R+42.7 |
| ross | 4.7% | R+39.7 |
| sandusky | 4.8% | R+31.1 |
| scioto | 5.9% | R+48.2 |
| seneca | 4.5% | R+37.9 |
| shelby | 4.0% | R+65.3 |
| stark | 4.6% | R+22.1 |
| summit | 4.5% | D+7.0 |
| trumbull | 5.2% | R+16.9 |
| tuscarawas | 4.1% | R+43.6 |
| union | 3.4% | R+29.9 |
| van-wert | 3.9% | R+59.0 |
| vinton | 5.2% | R+59.0 |
| warren | 3.9% | R+31.8 |
| washington | 5.1% | R+44.1 |
| wayne | 3.9% | R+39.6 |
| williams | 4.5% | R+48.7 |
| wood | 4.4% | R+10.3 |
| wyandot | 4.0% | R+51.6 |
| Figure | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Counties measured | 88 | the measure in 2024 against the presidential vote in 2024 |
| Spearman rho | 0.12 | the rank correlation across all counties measured |
| Partial Spearman rho | -0.25 | the same rank correlation with log population held fixed |
| Pearson r | 0.13 | the linear correlation, for comparison with the rank figure above |
| Spearman rho without Cuyahoga and Franklin | 0.10 | n = 86 |
Across all 88 counties the rank correlation is 0.12. With Cuyahoga and Franklin set aside, 86 counties, it is 0.10.
Election by election
The same pair of measures at each presidential election the measure reaches. The panels are drawn for 4 of the 7 elections measured, by a fixed rule that keeps one figure inside its size budget; the table below carries every one.
The numbers behind this figure, as a table
| Election | Spearman rho | Counties |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 | rho -0.42 | 88 |
| 2016 | rho -0.04 | 88 |
| 2020 | rho -0.10 | 88 |
| 2024 | rho 0.12 | 88 |
| Election | Measure year | Counties | Spearman rho | In the figure above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2000 | 88 | -0.42 | Drawn |
| 2004 | 2004 | 88 | -0.42 | Not drawn |
| 2008 | 2008 | 88 | -0.27 | Not drawn |
| 2012 | 2012 | 88 | -0.23 | Not drawn |
| 2016 | 2016 | 88 | -0.04 | Drawn |
| 2020 | 2020 | 88 | -0.10 | Drawn |
| 2024 | 2024 | 88 | 0.12 | Drawn |
The measure, county by county
Unemp Rate in 2024, in five steps of one ink from the lowest counties to the highest. No party color: this map draws a measure, not a vote.
The numbers behind this figure, as a table
| County | Unemp Rate |
|---|---|
| Adams | 6.2% |
| Allen | 4.5% |
| Ashland | 4.4% |
| Ashtabula | 4.3% |
| Athens | 5.3% |
| Auglaize | 3.7% |
| Belmont | 5.4% |
| Brown | 5.1% |
| Butler | 4.3% |
| Carroll | 4.9% |
| Champaign | 4.3% |
| Clark | 4.8% |
| Clermont | 4.2% |
| Clinton | 4.2% |
| Columbiana | 4.9% |
| Coshocton | 4.9% |
| Crawford | 4.9% |
| Cuyahoga | 3.9% |
| Darke | 4.0% |
| Defiance | 4.1% |
| Delaware | 3.7% |
| Erie | 4.9% |
| Fairfield | 4.1% |
| Fayette | 4.6% |
| Franklin | 4.2% |
| Fulton | 4.9% |
| Gallia | 5.3% |
| Geauga | 3.3% |
| Greene | 4.1% |
| Guernsey | 5.6% |
| Hamilton | 4.2% |
| Hancock | 4.0% |
| Hardin | 4.5% |
| Harrison | 5.1% |
| Henry | 4.8% |
| Highland | 4.7% |
| Hocking | 4.8% |
| Holmes | 3.3% |
| Huron | 5.3% |
| Jackson | 5.3% |
| Jefferson | 5.9% |
| Knox | 4.2% |
| Lake | 3.6% |
| Lawrence | 5.0% |
| Licking | 4.2% |
| Logan | 4.1% |
| Lorain | 4.0% |
| Lucas | 6.1% |
| Madison | 3.9% |
| Mahoning | 5.0% |
| Marion | 4.5% |
| Medina | 3.3% |
| Meigs | 6.9% |
| Mercer | 3.3% |
| Miami | 4.0% |
| Monroe | 6.3% |
| Montgomery | 4.6% |
| Morgan | 5.6% |
| Morrow | 4.3% |
| Muskingum | 4.7% |
| Noble | 6.6% |
| Ottawa | 6.2% |
| Paulding | 4.1% |
| Perry | 5.2% |
| Pickaway | 4.2% |
| Pike | 5.6% |
| Portage | 4.4% |
| Preble | 4.0% |
| Putnam | 3.6% |
| Richland | 5.0% |
| Ross | 4.7% |
| Sandusky | 4.8% |
| Scioto | 5.9% |
| Seneca | 4.5% |
| Shelby | 4.0% |
| Stark | 4.6% |
| Summit | 4.5% |
| Trumbull | 5.2% |
| Tuscarawas | 4.1% |
| Union | 3.4% |
| Van Wert | 3.9% |
| Vinton | 5.2% |
| Warren | 3.9% |
| Washington | 5.1% |
| Wayne | 3.9% |
| Williams | 4.5% |
| Wood | 4.4% |
| Wyandot | 4.0% |
The counties at each end
The five counties highest on the measure and the five lowest, with what each one voted in 2024.
| County | End | Unemp Rate | Presidential margin, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meigs County | Highest on this measure | 6.9% | R+57.4 |
| Noble County | Highest on this measure | 6.6% | R+65.1 |
| Monroe County | Highest on this measure | 6.3% | R+60.3 |
| Adams County | Highest on this measure | 6.2% | R+66.1 |
| Ottawa County | Highest on this measure | 6.2% | R+25.3 |
| Mercer County | Lowest on this measure | 3.3% | R+67.2 |
| Medina County | Lowest on this measure | 3.3% | R+25.0 |
| Holmes County | Lowest on this measure | 3.3% | R+69.7 |
| Geauga County | Lowest on this measure | 3.3% | R+24.3 |
| Union County | Lowest on this measure | 3.4% | R+29.9 |
What this does not say
This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter.
County measures mostly rise with county size, so the partial figure holds log population fixed; the figure without Cuyahoga and Franklin shows whether the two largest counties carry the pattern on their own.
The same pair ran to a rank correlation of -0.42 in 2000, so the absence of a pattern in 2024 is a change, not a constant.
Sources
The measure's own source and the election results this site holds, which every figure above is drawn from.
- Local Area Unemployment Statistics, county · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · accessed 2026-09
- Presidential results by county, and Ohio's statewide results: Ohio in presidential elections, where every year names its own source.
Cite and data
Cite this page as:
Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), "Unemployment rate and the presidential vote", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/unemployment-rate/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].
Machine-readable: /api/politics/insights/unemployment-rate.json (open JSON, CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; the underlying records keep their own terms) · How to cite · Report a correction · Built 2026-09-22
This page has a JSON twin: /api/politics/insights/unemployment-rate.json — the record itself, with every statistic on this page and the figure specs behind the pictures.