Findings

What moves with what

Measures this atlas already holds, set against each other across Ohio’s 88 counties. 155 patterns survived grading out of about 59,330 pairs tested over 384 measures, and each one is published with the figures that would undo it.

This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any person who lives in one.

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How to read these

A correlation between counties is a weak kind of evidence, and every column here exists to show you how weak.

  • Spearman rho is the rank correlation across the counties measured. It runs from −1 to 1.
  • Population held fixed is the same figure with log population partialled out, because most county measures rise with county size. If a pattern is only county size, this column collapses toward zero.
  • Structure held fixed also holds the rural–urban code and the Appalachian flag. Ohio’s Appalachian counties differ from its suburbs on almost everything, so a pattern that is really that difference shows up here.
  • Without Cuyahoga and Franklin drops the two largest counties and measures again. Two counties out of 88 can carry a statewide pattern on their own.
  • n is how many counties had both measures. q is the false-discovery rate across every pair tested, so a q of 0.05 means about one in twenty findings at that level is noise.
  • No finding here reverses when any single county is dropped.

What the grades mean:

  • robust association — The rank correlation survives holding population, the rural-urban code and the Appalachian flag fixed, and dropping any one county.
  • co-movement — On top of that, the two move together WITHIN counties over time, not only across them: a two-way fixed-effects fit on year-demeaned first differences.
  • precedence — On top of co-movement, one side leads the other in time. Precedence is necessary for cause and nowhere near sufficient; an unmeasured third thing can drive both with a lag.

Source: Cracked Buckeye inference engine (scripts/inference) over the county-year panel, run 2026-09-21. Every measure’s own definition, source and caveats are in the panel it came from.

Health

50 patterns.

Health: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Share of adults with COPD runs higher where share of adults who smoke runs higher.
places.copd_adj · places.csmoking_adj · places
0.99 0.98 0.97 0.98 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs higher where share of adults with COPD runs higher.
places.chd_adj · places.copd_adj · places
0.99 0.98 0.96 0.98 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults who smoke runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more physically unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.csmoking_adj · places.phlth_adj · places
0.98 0.97 0.95 0.97 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults who smoke runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.csmoking_adj · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.98 0.97 0.93 0.97 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs higher where share of adults who smoke runs higher.
places.chd_adj · places.csmoking_adj · places
0.98 0.97 0.94 0.97 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with COPD (crude) runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more physically unhealthy days a month (crude) runs higher.
places.copd_crude · places.phlth_crude · places
0.98 0.98 0.96 0.98 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults in fair or poor health runs higher where share of adults who have had a stroke runs higher.
places.ghlth_adj · places.stroke_adj · places
0.98 0.98 0.96 0.98 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with COPD runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.copd_adj · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.98 0.97 0.94 0.97 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more physically unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.mhlth_adj · places.phlth_adj · places
0.97 0.96 0.92 0.96 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes (crude) runs higher where share of adults who have had a stroke (crude) runs higher.
places.diabetes_crude · places.stroke_crude · places
0.96 0.96 0.93 0.96 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with COPD (crude) runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity (crude) runs higher.
places.copd_crude · places.lpa_crude · places
0.96 0.94 0.91 0.94 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more physically unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.lpa_adj · places.phlth_adj · places
0.96 0.95 0.93 0.95 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.chd_adj · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.96 0.95 0.90 0.95 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults who smoke runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher.
places.csmoking_adj · places.lpa_adj · places
0.95 0.94 0.91 0.94 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.lpa_adj · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.95 0.93 0.90 0.93 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher.
places.chd_adj · places.lpa_adj · places
0.95 0.93 0.90 0.93 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis (crude) runs higher where share of adults with coronary heart disease (crude) runs higher.
places.arthritis_crude · places.chd_crude · places
0.93 0.91 0.88 0.91 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Socioeconomic status vulnerability percentile runs higher where overall social vulnerability percentile runs higher.
svi.rpl_theme1_socioeconomic · svi.rpl_themes · svi
0.93 0.93 0.88 0.93 88 2022 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher where share of adults in fair or poor health runs higher.
places.diabetes_adj · places.ghlth_adj · places
0.91 0.94 0.90 0.94 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with COPD (crude) runs higher where share of adults with diagnosed diabetes (crude) runs higher.
places.copd_crude · places.diabetes_crude · places
0.90 0.91 0.85 0.91 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more physically unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.arthritis_adj · places.phlth_adj · places
0.89 0.86 0.77 0.87 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis runs higher where share of adults with COPD runs higher.
places.arthritis_adj · places.copd_adj · places
0.89 0.85 0.75 0.86 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.arthritis_adj · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.88 0.85 0.74 0.85 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis (crude) runs higher where share of adults with diagnosed diabetes (crude) runs higher.
places.arthritis_crude · places.diabetes_crude · places
0.88 0.86 0.81 0.86 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs lower where share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year runs higher.
places.chd_adj · places.dental_adj · places
-0.87 -0.83 -0.76 -0.84 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis runs higher where share of adults who smoke runs higher.
places.arthritis_adj · places.csmoking_adj · places
0.87 0.84 0.73 0.85 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with COPD runs lower where share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year (crude) runs higher.
places.copd_adj · places.dental_crude · places
-0.86 -0.82 -0.74 -0.82 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma runs higher where share of adults who have had a stroke runs higher.
places.casthma_adj · places.stroke_adj · places
0.86 0.87 0.75 0.87 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher.
places.arthritis_adj · places.lpa_adj · places
0.86 0.81 0.71 0.82 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults who have had a stroke runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.stroke_adj · places
0.85 0.83 0.77 0.83 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year (crude) runs lower where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.dental_crude · places.mhlth_adj · places
-0.85 -0.81 -0.74 -0.81 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.lpa_adj · places
0.84 0.82 0.75 0.82 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma runs higher where share of adults in fair or poor health runs higher.
places.casthma_adj · places.ghlth_adj · places
0.84 0.86 0.74 0.86 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults who smoke (crude) runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.csmoking_crude · places
0.83 0.81 0.76 0.81 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults with COPD runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.copd_adj · places
0.83 0.81 0.74 0.81 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma (crude) runs higher where share of adults with frequent mental distress (crude) runs higher.
places.casthma_crude · places.mhlth_crude · places
0.83 0.87 0.80 0.89 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma (crude) runs higher where share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher.
places.casthma_crude · places.diabetes_adj · places
0.83 0.83 0.72 0.84 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher.
places.diabetes_adj · places.lpa_adj · places
0.80 0.87 0.80 0.87 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma runs higher where share of adults with COPD runs higher.
places.casthma_adj · places.copd_adj · places
0.80 0.88 0.77 0.88 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.diabetes_adj · places
0.79 0.80 0.72 0.80 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.79 0.76 0.67 0.77 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs lower where share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year (crude) runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.dental_crude · places
-0.79 -0.75 -0.68 -0.76 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher where share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs higher.
places.diabetes_adj · places.mhlth_adj · places
0.79 0.88 0.80 0.88 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults who smoke runs higher where share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher.
places.csmoking_adj · places.diabetes_adj · places
0.78 0.87 0.78 0.87 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma runs higher where share of adults who smoke runs higher.
places.casthma_adj · places.csmoking_adj · places
0.77 0.85 0.73 0.86 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year (crude) runs lower where share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs higher.
places.dental_crude · places.diabetes_adj · places
-0.75 -0.78 -0.70 -0.79 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma runs higher where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs higher.
places.casthma_adj · places.lpa_adj · places
0.75 0.81 0.68 0.82 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with arthritis runs higher where share of adults with asthma runs higher.
places.arthritis_adj · places.casthma_adj · places
0.72 0.74 0.58 0.77 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults with asthma (crude) runs lower where share of adults who saw a dentist in the past year (crude) runs higher.
places.casthma_crude · places.dental_crude · places
-0.66 -0.70 -0.57 -0.71 88 2025 co-movement 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs higher where share of adults with asthma (crude) runs higher.
places.access2_crude · places.casthma_crude · places
0.63 0.65 0.47 0.64 88 2025 co-movement 0.000

Economy and demographics

44 patterns.

Economy and demographics: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Annual payroll, all industries (CBP) per resident runs higher where paid employees, all industries (CBP) per 10,000 residents runs higher.
cbp.annual_payroll_usd_thousands__per10k · cbp.employment__per10k · cbp
0.98 0.97 0.96 0.97 88 2023 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in professional, scientific and technical services runs higher where private-sector jobs in professional, scientific and technical services per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.54 · qcew.emp.54__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.93 0.85 0.85 0.85 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Median income of mortgage applicants runs higher where median home-purchase loan amount runs higher.
hmda.median_applicant_income_usd · hmda.median_loan_amount_usd · hmda
0.91 0.89 0.88 0.90 88 2023 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in educational services runs higher where private-sector jobs in educational services per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.61 · qcew.emp.61__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.90 0.76 0.78 0.76 85 2024 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting runs higher where private-sector jobs in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.11 · qcew.emp.11__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.90 0.91 0.91 0.93 86 2024 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in health care and social assistance runs higher where private-sector jobs in health care and social assistance per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.62 · qcew.emp.62__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.88 0.78 0.78 0.78 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction runs higher where private-sector jobs in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.21 · qcew.emp.21__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.88 0.89 0.89 0.91 84 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from manufacturing runs higher where private-sector jobs in manufacturing per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_manufacturing · qcew.emp.31_33__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
0.84 0.84 0.79 0.84 86 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from wholesale trade runs higher where private-sector jobs in wholesale trade per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_wholesale_trade · qcew.emp.42__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
0.80 0.78 0.71 0.78 73 2024 co-movement 0.000
Real GDP, all industries per resident runs higher where total employment per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_real_chained2017_total_usd_thousands__per10k · bea.total_employment_jobs__per10k · bea_cainc4
0.80 0.77 0.76 0.77 88 2024 and 2022 co-movement 0.000
Private-sector jobs in educational services per 10,000 residents runs higher where private-sector jobs in health care and social assistance per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.emp.61__per10k · qcew.emp.62__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.80 0.56 0.59 0.56 85 2024 co-movement 0.000
Real GDP, all industries per resident runs higher where total annual wages, all industries per resident runs higher.
bea.gdp_real_chained2017_total_usd_thousands__per10k · qcew.total_wages__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew
0.79 0.77 0.77 0.77 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Total housing units per 10,000 residents runs higher where government transfer receipts per resident runs higher.
acs5.housing_units__per10k · bea.personal_current_transfer_receipts_usd_thousands__per10k · acs5, bea_cainc4
0.77 0.77 0.73 0.77 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from transportation and warehousing runs higher where private-sector jobs in transportation and warehousing per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_transportation_warehousing · qcew.emp.48_49__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
0.75 0.78 0.77 0.77 73 2024 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in utilities runs higher where private-sector jobs in utilities per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.22 · qcew.emp.22__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 85 2024 co-movement 0.000
Private-sector jobs in retail trade per 10,000 residents runs higher where average annual employment, all industries per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.emp.44_45__per10k · qcew.employment__per10k · bls_qcew_private, bls_qcew
0.74 0.65 0.67 0.66 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Paid employees, all industries (CBP) per 10,000 residents runs higher where private-sector jobs in other services per 10,000 residents runs higher.
cbp.employment__per10k · qcew.emp.81__per10k · cbp, bls_qcew_private
0.73 0.62 0.52 0.63 88 2023 and 2024 co-movement 0.000
Median home value (owner-occupied) runs lower where government transfer receipts per resident runs higher.
acs5.median_home_value · bea.personal_current_transfer_receipts_usd_thousands__per10k · acs5, bea_cainc4
-0.73 -0.70 -0.66 -0.70 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from other services runs lower where real GDP, all industries per resident runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_other_services · bea.gdp_real_chained2017_total_usd_thousands__per10k · bea_cainc4
-0.71 -0.75 -0.75 -0.74 83 2024 co-movement 0.000
Dividends, interest and rent income per capita runs higher where establishments, all industries per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.percap_dividends_interest_rent_usd · qcew.establishments__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew
0.70 0.64 0.68 0.65 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Dividends, interest and rent income per capita runs higher where total employment per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.percap_dividends_interest_rent_usd · bea.total_employment_jobs__per10k · bea_cainc4
0.70 0.57 0.52 0.57 88 2024 and 2022 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in finance and insurance runs higher where private-sector jobs in finance and insurance per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.52 · qcew.emp.52__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.70 0.52 0.53 0.53 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from government runs lower where real GDP, all industries per resident runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_government · bea.gdp_real_chained2017_total_usd_thousands__per10k · bea_cainc4
-0.70 -0.72 -0.70 -0.74 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in wholesale trade runs higher where private-sector jobs in wholesale trade per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.42 · qcew.emp.42__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.66 0.55 0.53 0.55 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Private-sector jobs in accommodation and food services per 10,000 residents runs higher where average annual employment, all industries per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.emp.72__per10k · qcew.employment__per10k · bls_qcew_private, bls_qcew
0.64 0.48 0.52 0.49 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Total employment per 10,000 residents runs higher where private-sector jobs in construction per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.total_employment_jobs__per10k · qcew.emp.23__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
0.64 0.56 0.56 0.57 88 2022 and 2024 co-movement 0.000
Private-sector jobs in accommodation and food services per 10,000 residents runs higher where total annual wages, all industries per resident runs higher.
qcew.emp.72__per10k · qcew.total_wages__per10k · bls_qcew_private, bls_qcew
0.61 0.40 0.44 0.41 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Private-sector jobs in construction per 10,000 residents runs higher where establishments, all industries per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.emp.23__per10k · qcew.establishments__per10k · bls_qcew_private, bls_qcew
0.60 0.53 0.53 0.54 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting runs higher where farm proprietors' income per resident runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_agriculture_forestry_fishing_hunting · bea.farm_proprietors_income_usd_thousands__per10k · bea_cainc4
0.59 0.64 0.62 0.65 82 2024 co-movement 0.000
Paid employees, all industries (CBP) per 10,000 residents runs higher where private-sector jobs in manufacturing per 10,000 residents runs higher.
cbp.employment__per10k · qcew.emp.31_33__per10k · cbp, bls_qcew_private
0.58 0.71 0.60 0.72 88 2023 and 2024 co-movement 0.000
Total employment per 10,000 residents runs higher where employed residents per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.total_employment_jobs__per10k · bls.employed__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_laus
0.58 0.47 0.36 0.47 88 2022 and 2025 co-movement 0.000
Annual payroll, all industries (CBP) per resident runs higher where private-sector jobs in manufacturing per 10,000 residents runs higher.
cbp.annual_payroll_usd_thousands__per10k · qcew.emp.31_33__per10k · cbp, bls_qcew_private
0.55 0.69 0.55 0.69 88 2023 and 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of occupied housing units owner-occupied runs lower where share of the population below the poverty line runs higher.
acs5.owner_occupied_pct · acs5.poverty_rate · acs5
-0.54 -0.67 -0.65 -0.68 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from construction runs higher where share of GDP from other services runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_construction · bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_other_services · bea_cainc4
0.54 0.54 0.51 0.54 83 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from other services runs higher where share of GDP from retail trade runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_other_services · bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_retail_trade · bea_cainc4
0.52 0.52 0.53 0.50 83 2024 co-movement 0.000
Average weekly wage in transportation and warehousing runs higher where private-sector jobs in transportation and warehousing per 10,000 residents runs higher.
qcew.wage.48_49 · qcew.emp.48_49__per10k · bls_qcew_private
0.51 0.49 0.47 0.49 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Private-sector jobs in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction per 10,000 residents runs higher where share of GDP from mining, quarrying and oil and gas runs higher.
qcew.emp.21__per10k · bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_mining_quarrying_oil_gas · bls_qcew_private, bea_cainc4
0.48 0.56 0.48 0.56 84 2024 precedence 0.000
Share of GDP from utilities runs higher where private-sector jobs in utilities per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_utilities · qcew.emp.22__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
0.43 0.47 0.43 0.47 82 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from other services runs higher where share of GDP from government runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_other_services · bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_government · bea_cainc4
0.43 0.43 0.41 0.45 83 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from construction runs higher where private-sector jobs in construction per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_construction · qcew.emp.23__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
0.41 0.45 0.49 0.45 86 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from retail trade runs lower where real GDP, all industries per resident runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_retail_trade · bea.gdp_real_chained2017_total_usd_thousands__per10k · bea_cainc4
-0.41 -0.51 -0.49 -0.50 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from finance, insurance and real estate runs lower where real GDP, all industries per resident runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_finance_insurance_real_estate · bea.gdp_real_chained2017_total_usd_thousands__per10k · bea_cainc4
-0.34 -0.52 -0.52 -0.58 61 2024 co-movement 0.000
Median household income runs higher where share of occupied housing units owner-occupied runs higher.
acs5.median_hh_income · acs5.owner_occupied_pct · acs5
0.33 0.65 0.59 0.66 88 2024 co-movement 0.000
Share of GDP from other services runs lower where private-sector jobs in real estate and rental per 10,000 residents runs higher.
bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_other_services · qcew.emp.53__per10k · bea_cainc4, bls_qcew_private
-0.31 -0.40 -0.42 -0.39 83 2024 co-movement 0.001

Economy and demographics + Health

39 patterns.

Economy and demographics + Health: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Share of adults with COPD runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.copd_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.90 -0.85 -0.80 -0.85 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.chd_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.90 -0.86 -0.81 -0.86 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Median household income runs lower where food insecurity (County Health Rankings) runs higher.
acs5.median_hh_income · chr.food_insecure_pct · acs5, chr
-0.90 -0.89 -0.83 -0.89 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with 14 or more physically unhealthy days a month runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.phlth_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.89 -0.85 -0.79 -0.85 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with a cognitive disability (crude) runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.cognition_crude · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.89 -0.86 -0.80 -0.86 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs lower where labor force per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.chd_adj · bls.labor_force__per10k · places, bls_laus
-0.88 -0.85 -0.75 -0.86 88 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with 14 or more mentally unhealthy days a month runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.mhlth_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.88 -0.82 -0.76 -0.82 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults who smoke runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.csmoking_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.88 -0.84 -0.78 -0.84 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher runs lower where share of adults who smoke (crude) runs higher.
acs5.bachelors_plus_pct · places.csmoking_crude · acs5, places
-0.88 -0.83 -0.79 -0.83 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults in fair or poor health runs lower where employed residents per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.ghlth_adj · bls.employed__per10k · places, bls_laus
-0.87 -0.84 -0.74 -0.85 88 2025 robust association 0.000
Share 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher runs lower where share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity (crude) runs higher.
acs5.bachelors_plus_pct · places.lpa_crude · acs5, places
-0.87 -0.81 -0.75 -0.81 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher runs lower where share of adults with COPD (crude) runs higher.
acs5.bachelors_plus_pct · places.copd_crude · acs5, places
-0.87 -0.79 -0.75 -0.79 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share age 65 and over runs higher where share of adults with a cancer diagnosis (non-skin, crude) runs higher.
acs5.age_65_plus_pct · places.cancer_crude · acs5, places
0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults screened for cholesterol runs higher where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.cholscreen_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
0.86 0.80 0.72 0.80 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with COPD runs lower where labor force per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.copd_adj · bls.labor_force__per10k · places, bls_laus
-0.86 -0.83 -0.71 -0.83 88 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with no leisure-time physical activity runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.lpa_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.86 -0.81 -0.72 -0.81 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults with chronic kidney disease runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.kidney_adj · nces_f33, places
0.85 0.87 0.77 0.86 88 2023 robust association 0.000
Median household income runs lower where share of adults lacking reliable transportation runs higher.
acs5.median_hh_income · places.lacktrpt_adj · acs5, places
-0.85 -0.86 -0.74 -0.86 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with a hearing disability runs lower where labor force per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.hearing_adj · bls.labor_force__per10k · places, bls_laus
-0.84 -0.83 -0.70 -0.83 88 2025 robust association 0.000
Median household income runs lower where share of adults threatened with a utility shut-off in the past year runs higher.
acs5.median_hh_income · places.shututility_adj · acs5, places
-0.84 -0.88 -0.79 -0.88 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with chronic kidney disease (crude) runs higher where government transfer receipts per resident runs higher.
places.kidney_crude · bea.personal_current_transfer_receipts_usd_thousands__per10k · places, bea_cainc4
0.83 0.82 0.74 0.82 88 2023 and 2024 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults threatened with a utility shut-off in the past year runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.shututility_adj · nces_f33, places
0.83 0.83 0.72 0.83 88 2023 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Dividends, interest and rent income per capita runs lower where share of adults who smoke runs higher.
bea.percap_dividends_interest_rent_usd · places.csmoking_adj · bea_cainc4, places
-0.83 -0.73 -0.71 -0.73 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share age 65 and over runs higher where share of adults with high blood pressure taking medicine for it (crude) runs higher.
acs5.age_65_plus_pct · places.bpmed_crude · acs5, places
0.82 0.80 0.81 0.81 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults who received food stamps in the past year runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.foodstamp_adj · nces_f33, places
0.82 0.85 0.73 0.85 88 2023 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults lacking reliable transportation runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.lacktrpt_adj · nces_f33, places
0.82 0.84 0.72 0.84 88 2023 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes (crude) runs higher where government transfer receipts per resident runs higher.
places.diabetes_crude · bea.personal_current_transfer_receipts_usd_thousands__per10k · places, bea_cainc4
0.82 0.80 0.71 0.80 88 2025 and 2024 robust association 0.000
Dividends, interest and rent income per capita runs lower where share of adults with COPD runs higher.
bea.percap_dividends_interest_rent_usd · places.copd_adj · bea_cainc4, places
-0.82 -0.73 -0.71 -0.73 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Median household income runs lower where share of adults with housing insecurity in the past year runs higher.
acs5.median_hh_income · places.housinsecu_adj · acs5, places
-0.81 -0.85 -0.74 -0.85 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Share 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher runs lower where share of adults in fair or poor health (crude) runs higher.
acs5.bachelors_plus_pct · places.ghlth_crude · acs5, places
-0.81 -0.81 -0.77 -0.81 88 2024 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults with a self-care disability runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.selfcare_adj · nces_f33, places
0.80 0.85 0.74 0.85 88 2023 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults who have had a stroke runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.stroke_adj · nces_f33, places
0.80 0.85 0.73 0.84 88 2023 and 2025 robust association 0.000
Premature age-adjusted mortality rate (County Health Rankings) runs lower where public school revenue -- local share runs higher.
chr.premature_ageadj_mortality_rate · educ.local_revenue_share · chr, nces_f33
-0.80 -0.79 -0.71 -0.79 88 2025 and 2023 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs lower where employed residents per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.diabetes_adj · bls.employed__per10k · places, bls_laus
-0.80 -0.83 -0.73 -0.84 88 2025 robust association 0.000
Drug overdose deaths, 12 months ending 31 December per 10,000 residents runs lower where public school revenue -- local share runs higher.
overdose.vsrr_12mo_ending_dec__per10k · educ.local_revenue_share · nchs_vsrr, nces_f33
-0.78 -0.81 -0.74 -0.83 69 2023 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with diagnosed diabetes runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.diabetes_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.78 -0.84 -0.78 -0.84 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with chronic kidney disease runs lower where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
places.kidney_adj · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · places, irs_soi
-0.77 -0.82 -0.75 -0.83 88 2023 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults threatened with a utility shut-off in the past year runs lower where employed residents per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.shututility_adj · bls.employed__per10k · places, bls_laus
-0.75 -0.81 -0.71 -0.83 88 2025 robust association 0.000
Public school revenue -- federal share runs higher where share of adults with COPD runs higher.
educ.federal_revenue_share · places.copd_adj · nces_f33, places
0.68 0.84 0.71 0.84 88 2023 and 2025 robust association 0.000

Elections + Health

13 patterns.

This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter. These set a measure against how counties voted; a county is not a voter, and nothing here describes anyone’s ballot.

Elections + Health: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Share of adults lacking reliable transportation (crude) runs lower where votes cast for Auditor of State per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.lacktrpt_crude · elec.aud.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.82 -0.82 -0.76 -0.81 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with food insecurity in the past year (crude) runs lower where votes cast for Auditor of State per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.foodinsecu_crude · elec.aud.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.81 -0.81 -0.75 -0.80 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with chronic kidney disease runs lower where votes cast for U.S. Senate per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.kidney_adj · elec.sen.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.79 -0.79 -0.71 -0.79 88 2023 and 2024 robust association 0.000
Premature age-adjusted mortality rate (County Health Rankings) runs lower where turnout rate (2020 general) runs higher.
chr.premature_ageadj_mortality_rate · elec.turnout.rate · chr, oe
-0.79 -0.80 -0.72 -0.80 88 2025 and 2023 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with housing insecurity in the past year (crude) runs lower where votes cast for Auditor of State per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.housinsecu_crude · elec.aud.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.79 -0.80 -0.73 -0.80 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults in fair or poor health runs lower where votes cast for Attorney General per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.ghlth_adj · elec.ag.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.79 -0.81 -0.76 -0.81 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults lacking social and emotional support (crude) runs lower where votes cast for President per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.emotionspt_crude · elec.pres.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.78 -0.78 -0.73 -0.78 88 2025 and 2024 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with frequent mental distress (crude) runs lower where votes cast for Governor per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.mhlth_crude · elec.gov.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.78 -0.79 -0.74 -0.80 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults screened for cholesterol (crude) runs higher where votes cast for U.S. Senate per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.cholscreen_crude · elec.sen.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
0.78 0.80 0.76 0.81 88 2025 and 2024 robust association 0.000
Share of adults 18 to 64 without health insurance (crude) runs lower where votes cast for Auditor of State per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.access2_crude · elec.aud.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.77 -0.79 -0.72 -0.78 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with a cognitive disability (crude) runs lower where votes cast for Attorney General per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.cognition_crude · elec.ag.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.76 -0.80 -0.75 -0.81 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with COPD runs lower where votes cast for Governor per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.copd_adj · elec.gov.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.73 -0.78 -0.73 -0.78 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with coronary heart disease runs lower where votes cast for U.S. Senate per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.chd_adj · elec.sen.total_votes__per10k · places, oe
-0.69 -0.80 -0.74 -0.80 88 2025 and 2024 robust association 0.000

Economy and demographics + Housing

2 patterns.

Economy and demographics + Housing: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier) runs higher where nonemployer business receipts per resident runs higher.
zillow.zhvi · nonemp.receipts__per10k · zillow_zhvi_county, nonemp2
0.67 0.62 0.66 0.63 88 2026 and 2021 co-movement 0.000
Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier) runs lower where total housing units per 10,000 residents runs higher.
zillow.zhvi · acs5.housing_units__per10k · zillow_zhvi_county, acs5
-0.67 -0.67 -0.62 -0.67 88 2026 and 2024 co-movement 0.000

Economy and demographics + Population

2 patterns.

Economy and demographics + Population: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Share 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher runs higher where population, Asian or Pacific Islander (bridged race) per 10,000 residents runs higher.
acs5.bachelors_plus_pct · pop.odh.race.asian_pi__per10k · acs5, odh_bridged_race
0.83 0.62 0.51 0.61 88 2024 and 2022 co-movement 0.000
Total housing units per 10,000 residents runs higher where population, age 65 and over per 10,000 residents runs higher.
acs5.housing_units__per10k · pop.odh.age.65plus__per10k · acs5, odh_bridged_race
0.69 0.69 0.66 0.69 88 2024 and 2022 co-movement 0.000

Health + Population

2 patterns.

Health + Population: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Share of adults with arthritis (crude) runs higher where population, age 65 and over per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.arthritis_crude · pop.odh.age.65plus__per10k · places, odh_bridged_race
0.80 0.77 0.77 0.77 88 2025 and 2022 robust association 0.000
Share of adults with chronic kidney disease (crude) runs higher where population, age 65 and over per 10,000 residents runs higher.
places.kidney_crude · pop.odh.age.65plus__per10k · places, odh_bridged_race
0.75 0.71 0.71 0.71 88 2023 and 2022 robust association 0.000

Demographics + Health

1 pattern.

Demographics + Health: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Share of children in single-parent households (County Health Rankings) runs higher where total housing units (Decennial Census) per 10,000 residents runs higher.
chr.single_parent_households_pct · decennial.housing_units__per10k · chr, decennial
0.70 0.75 0.72 0.75 88 2025 and 2020 robust association 0.000

Economy and demographics + Elections

1 pattern.

This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter. These set a measure against how counties voted; a county is not a voter, and nothing here describes anyone’s ballot.

Economy and demographics + Elections: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Votes cast for U.S. Senate per 10,000 residents runs higher where total adjusted gross income per resident runs higher.
elec.sen.total_votes__per10k · irs.total_agi_usd_thousands__per10k · oe, irs_soi
0.68 0.79 0.73 0.80 88 2024 and 2022 robust association 0.000

Employment + Health

1 pattern.

Employment + Health: rank correlations across Ohio’s counties, strongest first
Measure Pattern Spearman rho Population held fixed Structure held fixed Without Cuyahoga and Franklin n Years Evidence q
Food insecurity (County Health Rankings) runs higher where unemployment rate (decennial census) runs higher.
chr.food_insecure_pct · hist.unemployment_rate · chr, nhgis_hist
0.85 0.86 0.77 0.86 88 2025 and 2000 robust association 0.000

Cite and data

Every finding, as JSON: /api/findings.json

Each county’s own standing on the measures behind these is on its county page, under “What stands out”.