An insight across Ohio's 88 counties
People moving in, per 1,000 residents, and the presidential vote
Across Ohio's 88 counties the 2024 Republican presidential margin does not track how many people moved into a county per 1,000 residents in 2022 (Spearman rho -0.11; partial rho -0.21 with log population held fixed; -0.15 without Cuyahoga and Franklin; n = 88).
Where the counties sit
One dot per county: People moving in per 1,000 residents (IRS migration, 2022) in 2022 across the bottom, the 2024 presidential margin in points up the side. Every dot links to that county's own result for that election.
The numbers behind this figure, as a table
| County | People moving in per 1,000 residents (IRS migration, 2022), 2022 | Presidential margin, 2024 (R minus D, points) |
|---|---|---|
| adams | 34.4 | R+66.1 |
| allen | 34.3 | R+44.5 |
| ashland | 42.0 | R+50.4 |
| ashtabula | 29.2 | R+28.6 |
| athens | 36.5 | D+10.8 |
| auglaize | 40.0 | R+65.1 |
| belmont | 27.9 | R+47.6 |
| brown | 50.9 | R+61.8 |
| butler | 43.1 | R+26.5 |
| carroll | 44.2 | R+55.2 |
| champaign | 47.2 | R+51.2 |
| clark | 34.3 | R+29.8 |
| clermont | 49.0 | R+36.1 |
| clinton | 49.0 | R+55.1 |
| columbiana | 30.0 | R+49.4 |
| coshocton | 33.9 | R+52.6 |
| crawford | 40.4 | R+53.4 |
| Cuyahoga | 25.9 | D+31.7 |
| darke | 30.8 | R+65.8 |
| defiance | 39.8 | R+40.2 |
| delaware | 66.2 | R+6.7 |
| erie | 40.2 | R+14.3 |
| fairfield | 61.9 | R+24.3 |
| fayette | 42.1 | R+55.6 |
| Franklin | 37.0 | D+28.7 |
| fulton | 41.9 | R+42.8 |
| gallia | 29.5 | R+59.8 |
| geauga | 37.9 | R+24.3 |
| greene | 63.2 | R+20.0 |
| guernsey | 38.5 | R+52.4 |
| hamilton | 33.6 | D+15.0 |
| hancock | 40.2 | R+38.9 |
| hardin | 42.1 | R+55.2 |
| harrison | 38.2 | R+55.7 |
| henry | 39.4 | R+47.1 |
| highland | 42.3 | R+63.7 |
| hocking | 38.2 | R+44.6 |
| holmes | 25.6 | R+69.7 |
| huron | 39.5 | R+44.4 |
| jackson | 32.3 | R+58.4 |
| jefferson | 33.1 | R+44.4 |
| knox | 38.8 | R+45.3 |
| lake | 33.9 | R+14.5 |
| lawrence | 32.5 | R+50.9 |
| licking | 48.3 | R+30.3 |
| logan | 44.0 | R+56.7 |
| lorain | 36.6 | R+5.8 |
| lucas | 27.9 | D+12.7 |
| madison | 60.8 | R+44.1 |
| mahoning | 32.6 | R+9.5 |
| marion | 34.6 | R+41.7 |
| medina | 42.2 | R+25.0 |
| meigs | 31.5 | R+57.4 |
| mercer | 24.5 | R+67.2 |
| miami | 45.8 | R+45.5 |
| monroe | 32.4 | R+60.3 |
| montgomery | 39.8 | D+0.5 |
| morgan | 34.7 | R+53.6 |
| morrow | 57.2 | R+56.2 |
| muskingum | 33.0 | R+44.3 |
| noble | 27.8 | R+65.1 |
| ottawa | 47.0 | R+25.3 |
| paulding | 35.3 | R+56.8 |
| perry | 46.7 | R+54.9 |
| pickaway | 60.2 | R+49.0 |
| pike | 40.6 | R+54.0 |
| portage | 46.3 | R+15.7 |
| preble | 38.8 | R+59.6 |
| putnam | 21.9 | R+69.4 |
| richland | 34.0 | R+42.7 |
| ross | 33.1 | R+39.7 |
| sandusky | 35.2 | R+31.1 |
| scioto | 23.6 | R+48.2 |
| seneca | 40.6 | R+37.9 |
| shelby | 38.8 | R+65.3 |
| stark | 30.4 | R+22.1 |
| summit | 35.7 | D+7.0 |
| trumbull | 32.4 | R+16.9 |
| tuscarawas | 29.0 | R+43.6 |
| union | 76.1 | R+29.9 |
| van-wert | 35.8 | R+59.0 |
| vinton | 46.2 | R+59.0 |
| warren | 54.4 | R+31.8 |
| washington | 32.8 | R+44.1 |
| wayne | 31.5 | R+39.6 |
| williams | 34.6 | R+48.7 |
| wood | 50.4 | R+10.3 |
| wyandot | 39.8 | R+51.6 |
| Figure | Value | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| Counties measured | 88 | the measure in 2022 against the presidential vote in 2024 |
| Spearman rho | -0.11 | the rank correlation across all counties measured |
| Partial Spearman rho | -0.21 | the same rank correlation with log population held fixed |
| Pearson r | -0.08 | the linear correlation, for comparison with the rank figure above |
| Spearman rho without Cuyahoga and Franklin | -0.15 | n = 86 |
Across all 88 counties the rank correlation is -0.11. With Cuyahoga and Franklin set aside, 86 counties, it is -0.15.
Election by election
The same pair of measures at each presidential election the measure reaches. The panels are drawn for 2 of the 2 elections measured, by a fixed rule that keeps one figure inside its size budget; the table below carries every one.
The numbers behind this figure, as a table
| Election | Spearman rho | Counties |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | rho -0.07 | 88 |
| 2024 | rho -0.11 | 88 |
| Election | Measure year | Counties | Spearman rho | In the figure above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2022 | 88 | -0.07 | Drawn |
| 2024 | 2022 | 88 | -0.11 | Drawn |
The measure, county by county
People moving in per 1,000 residents (IRS migration, 2022) in 2022, in five steps of one ink from the lowest counties to the highest. No party color: this map draws a measure, not a vote.
The numbers behind this figure, as a table
| County | People moving in per 1,000 residents (IRS migration, 2022) |
|---|---|
| Adams | 34.4 |
| Allen | 34.3 |
| Ashland | 42.0 |
| Ashtabula | 29.2 |
| Athens | 36.5 |
| Auglaize | 40.0 |
| Belmont | 27.9 |
| Brown | 50.9 |
| Butler | 43.1 |
| Carroll | 44.2 |
| Champaign | 47.2 |
| Clark | 34.3 |
| Clermont | 49.0 |
| Clinton | 49.0 |
| Columbiana | 30.0 |
| Coshocton | 33.9 |
| Crawford | 40.4 |
| Cuyahoga | 25.9 |
| Darke | 30.8 |
| Defiance | 39.8 |
| Delaware | 66.2 |
| Erie | 40.2 |
| Fairfield | 61.9 |
| Fayette | 42.1 |
| Franklin | 37.0 |
| Fulton | 41.9 |
| Gallia | 29.5 |
| Geauga | 37.9 |
| Greene | 63.2 |
| Guernsey | 38.5 |
| Hamilton | 33.6 |
| Hancock | 40.2 |
| Hardin | 42.1 |
| Harrison | 38.2 |
| Henry | 39.4 |
| Highland | 42.3 |
| Hocking | 38.2 |
| Holmes | 25.6 |
| Huron | 39.5 |
| Jackson | 32.3 |
| Jefferson | 33.1 |
| Knox | 38.8 |
| Lake | 33.9 |
| Lawrence | 32.5 |
| Licking | 48.3 |
| Logan | 44.0 |
| Lorain | 36.6 |
| Lucas | 27.9 |
| Madison | 60.8 |
| Mahoning | 32.6 |
| Marion | 34.6 |
| Medina | 42.2 |
| Meigs | 31.5 |
| Mercer | 24.5 |
| Miami | 45.8 |
| Monroe | 32.4 |
| Montgomery | 39.8 |
| Morgan | 34.7 |
| Morrow | 57.2 |
| Muskingum | 33.0 |
| Noble | 27.8 |
| Ottawa | 47.0 |
| Paulding | 35.3 |
| Perry | 46.7 |
| Pickaway | 60.2 |
| Pike | 40.6 |
| Portage | 46.3 |
| Preble | 38.8 |
| Putnam | 21.9 |
| Richland | 34.0 |
| Ross | 33.1 |
| Sandusky | 35.2 |
| Scioto | 23.6 |
| Seneca | 40.6 |
| Shelby | 38.8 |
| Stark | 30.4 |
| Summit | 35.7 |
| Trumbull | 32.4 |
| Tuscarawas | 29.0 |
| Union | 76.1 |
| Van Wert | 35.8 |
| Vinton | 46.2 |
| Warren | 54.4 |
| Washington | 32.8 |
| Wayne | 31.5 |
| Williams | 34.6 |
| Wood | 50.4 |
| Wyandot | 39.8 |
The counties at each end
The five counties highest on the measure and the five lowest, with what each one voted in 2024.
| County | End | People moving in per 1,000 residents (IRS migration, 2022) | Presidential margin, 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union County | Highest on this measure | 76.1 | R+29.9 |
| Delaware County | Highest on this measure | 66.2 | R+6.7 |
| Greene County | Highest on this measure | 63.2 | R+20.0 |
| Fairfield County | Highest on this measure | 61.9 | R+24.3 |
| Madison County | Highest on this measure | 60.8 | R+44.1 |
| Putnam County | Lowest on this measure | 21.9 | R+69.4 |
| Scioto County | Lowest on this measure | 23.6 | R+48.2 |
| Mercer County | Lowest on this measure | 24.5 | R+67.2 |
| Holmes County | Lowest on this measure | 25.6 | R+69.7 |
| Cuyahoga County | Lowest on this measure | 25.9 | D+31.7 |
What this does not say
This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter.
County measures mostly rise with county size, so the partial figure holds log population fixed; the figure without Cuyahoga and Franklin shows whether the two largest counties carry the pattern on their own.
Field order taken from data/CATALOG.md's documented schema for this file, not re-derived here; AGI figures are in millions of dollars for movers only, not the whole county. A count of people is mostly a count of county size, so the honest form of this measure is the rate: filers and their dependents moving into the county in one year for every 1,000 residents.
Sources
The measure's own source and the election results this site holds, which every figure above is drawn from.
- County-to-county migration flow summary · IRS SOI (as compiled in this repo) · accessed 2026-09
- Presidential results by county, and Ohio's statewide results: Ohio in presidential elections, where every year names its own source.
Cite and data
Cite this page as:
Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), "People moving in, per 1,000 residents, and the presidential vote", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/people-moving-in/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].
Machine-readable: /api/politics/insights/people-moving-in.json (open JSON, CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; the underlying records keep their own terms) · How to cite · Report a correction · Built 2026-09-22
This page has a JSON twin: /api/politics/insights/people-moving-in.json — the record itself, with every statistic on this page and the figure specs behind the pictures.