{
  "caveats": [
    "This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter.",
    "County measures mostly rise with county size, so the partial figure holds log population fixed; the figure without Cuyahoga and Franklin shows whether the two largest counties carry the pattern on their own.",
    "The two county populations come from the historical census tables the panel was backfilled with, and the table pulled differs from decade to decade. Built here from the decennial county populations of 1950 and 1990, so it is a measure of the forty years before the elections drawn beside it, not of today."
  ],
  "claims": [],
  "drift": [],
  "extremes": {
    "high": [
      "clermont",
      "geauga",
      "medina",
      "warren",
      "lake"
    ],
    "low": [
      "belmont",
      "jefferson",
      "harrison",
      "noble",
      "scioto"
    ]
  },
  "id": "population-change-1950-1990",
  "n": 88,
  "notes": "Drafted by scripts/politics/insights.py fit derived.pop_change_1950_1990_pct. Every statistic is recomputed from data/exports/ by `insights.py check` and by validate.py, and a drift over 0.005 fails the build.",
  "partial_spearman_logpop": -0.063,
  "pearson": -0.27,
  "reading": "Across Ohio's 88 counties the 2024 Republican presidential margin does not track how much a county's population changed between 1950 and 1990 (Spearman rho -0.32; partial rho -0.06 with log population held fixed; -0.34 without Cuyahoga and Franklin; n = 88).",
  "sources": [
    {
      "accessed": "2026-09-18",
      "publisher": "IPUMS NHGIS (University of Minnesota)",
      "title": "Decennial census county tables, 1940-2000 (population, race, education, labor force, income, housing tenure/value/rent, urban/rural)",
      "url": "https://www.nhgis.org/"
    }
  ],
  "spearman": -0.319,
  "title": "Population change 1950 to 1990 and the presidential vote",
  "updated": "2026-09-19",
  "without_big_two": {
    "n": 86,
    "spearman": -0.337
  },
  "x": {
    "label": "Population change, 1950 to 1990 (percent)",
    "measure_id": "derived.pop_change_1950_1990_pct",
    "source_id": "nhgis_hist",
    "unit": "pct",
    "url": "https://www.nhgis.org/",
    "year": 1990
  },
  "y": {
    "label": "Presidential margin (R minus D, points)",
    "measure_id": "elec.pres.margin_rep_minus_dem",
    "year": 2024
  },
  "type": "insight",
  "figures": [
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-population-change-1950-1990.json",
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-population-change-1950-1990-drift.json",
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-population-change-1950-1990-map.json"
  ],
  "county_results_api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/results/county/{county_slug}.json",
  "_meta": {
    "generated": "2026-09-22",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; each source keeps its own terms",
    "cite": "Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), \"Population change 1950 to 1990 and the presidential vote\", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/population-change-1950-1990/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].",
    "schema": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/schema.json",
    "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/population-change-1950-1990/",
    "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/insights/population-change-1950-1990.json"
  },
  "cite": "Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), \"Population change 1950 to 1990 and the presidential vote\", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/population-change-1950-1990/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].",
  "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/population-change-1950-1990/",
  "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/insights/population-change-1950-1990.json",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; each source keeps its own terms",
  "generated": "2026-09-22",
  "schema": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/schema.json"
}