{
  "caveats": [
    "This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter.",
    "County measures mostly rise with county size, so the partial figure holds log population fixed; the figure without Cuyahoga and Franklin shows whether the two largest counties carry the pattern on their own.",
    "Field order taken from data/CATALOG.md's documented schema for this file, not re-derived here; AGI figures are in millions of dollars for movers only, not the whole county. A count of people is mostly a count of county size, so the honest form of this measure is the rate: filers and their dependents moving into the county in one year for every 1,000 residents."
  ],
  "claims": [],
  "drift": [
    {
      "n": 88,
      "spearman": -0.074,
      "x_year": 2022,
      "year": 2020
    },
    {
      "n": 88,
      "spearman": -0.111,
      "x_year": 2022,
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "extremes": {
    "high": [
      "union",
      "delaware",
      "greene",
      "fairfield",
      "madison"
    ],
    "low": [
      "putnam",
      "scioto",
      "mercer",
      "holmes",
      "cuyahoga"
    ]
  },
  "id": "people-moving-in",
  "n": 88,
  "notes": "Drafted by scripts/politics/insights.py fit derived.migr_people_in_per_1k. Every statistic is recomputed from data/exports/ by `insights.py check` and by validate.py, and a drift over 0.005 fails the build.",
  "partial_spearman_logpop": -0.208,
  "pearson": -0.078,
  "reading": "Across Ohio's 88 counties the 2024 Republican presidential margin does not track how many people moved into a county per 1,000 residents in 2022 (Spearman rho -0.11; partial rho -0.21 with log population held fixed; -0.15 without Cuyahoga and Franklin; n = 88).",
  "sources": [
    {
      "accessed": "2026-09",
      "publisher": "IRS SOI (as compiled in this repo)",
      "title": "County-to-county migration flow summary",
      "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data"
    }
  ],
  "spearman": -0.111,
  "title": "People moving in, per 1,000 residents, and the presidential vote",
  "updated": "2026-09-19",
  "without_big_two": {
    "n": 86,
    "spearman": -0.152
  },
  "x": {
    "label": "People moving in per 1,000 residents (IRS migration, 2022)",
    "measure_id": "derived.migr_people_in_per_1k",
    "source_id": "migration",
    "unit": "rate",
    "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data",
    "year": 2022
  },
  "y": {
    "label": "Presidential margin (R minus D, points)",
    "measure_id": "elec.pres.margin_rep_minus_dem",
    "year": 2024
  },
  "type": "insight",
  "figures": [
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-people-moving-in.json",
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-people-moving-in-drift.json",
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-people-moving-in-map.json"
  ],
  "county_results_api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/results/county/{county_slug}.json",
  "_meta": {
    "generated": "2026-09-22",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; each source keeps its own terms",
    "cite": "Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), \"People moving in, per 1,000 residents, and the presidential vote\", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/people-moving-in/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].",
    "schema": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/schema.json",
    "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/people-moving-in/",
    "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/insights/people-moving-in.json"
  },
  "cite": "Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), \"People moving in, per 1,000 residents, and the presidential vote\", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/people-moving-in/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].",
  "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/people-moving-in/",
  "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/insights/people-moving-in.json",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; each source keeps its own terms",
  "generated": "2026-09-22",
  "schema": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/schema.json"
}