{
  "caveats": [
    "This is a pattern across counties, not a fact about any voter.",
    "County measures mostly rise with county size, so the partial figure holds log population fixed; the figure without Cuyahoga and Franklin shows whether the two largest counties carry the pattern on their own.",
    "CHR changes measure definitions/methodology across releases; treat as release-year snapshots, not a strictly comparable time series. National CSVs (2010-2019) and Ohio workbooks (2020-2025) use different file formats; both were parsed into the same measure_id where the underlying concept matches.",
    "County Health Rankings publishes this share as a modeled estimate from survey responses, not as a count of smokers."
  ],
  "claims": [],
  "drift": [],
  "extremes": {
    "high": [
      "vinton",
      "meigs",
      "scioto",
      "pike",
      "ashtabula"
    ],
    "low": [
      "delaware",
      "warren",
      "union",
      "greene",
      "medina"
    ]
  },
  "id": "adult-smoking",
  "n": 88,
  "notes": "Drafted by scripts/politics/insights.py fit chr.adult_smoking_pct. Every statistic is recomputed from data/exports/ by `insights.py check` and by validate.py, and a drift over 0.005 fails the build.",
  "partial_spearman_logpop": 0.216,
  "pearson": 0.533,
  "reading": "Across Ohio's 88 counties the 2024 Republican presidential margin runs higher where a larger share of adults smokes (Spearman rho 0.56; partial rho 0.22 with log population held fixed; 0.54 without Cuyahoga and Franklin; n = 88).",
  "sources": [
    {
      "accessed": "2026-09",
      "publisher": "University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute / RWJF",
      "title": "County Health Rankings",
      "url": "https://www.countyhealthrankings.org"
    }
  ],
  "spearman": 0.561,
  "title": "Adult smoking and the presidential vote",
  "updated": "2026-09-19",
  "without_big_two": {
    "n": 86,
    "spearman": 0.539
  },
  "x": {
    "label": "Adult smoking (County Health Rankings)",
    "measure_id": "chr.adult_smoking_pct",
    "source_id": "chr",
    "unit": "%",
    "url": "https://www.countyhealthrankings.org",
    "year": 2024
  },
  "y": {
    "label": "Presidential margin (R minus D, points)",
    "measure_id": "elec.pres.margin_rep_minus_dem",
    "year": 2024
  },
  "type": "insight",
  "figures": [
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-adult-smoking.json",
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-adult-smoking-drift.json",
    "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/figures/insight-adult-smoking-map.json"
  ],
  "county_results_api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/results/county/{county_slug}.json",
  "_meta": {
    "generated": "2026-09-22",
    "license": "CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; each source keeps its own terms",
    "cite": "Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), \"Adult smoking and the presidential vote\", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/adult-smoking/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].",
    "schema": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/schema.json",
    "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/adult-smoking/",
    "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/insights/adult-smoking.json"
  },
  "cite": "Cracked Buckeye (Open Shower Co), \"Adult smoking and the presidential vote\", https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/adult-smoking/, built 2026-09-22, accessed [date].",
  "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/insights/adult-smoking/",
  "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/insights/adult-smoking.json",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0 for the compilation; each source keeps its own terms",
  "generated": "2026-09-22",
  "schema": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/politics/schema.json"
}