{ "type": "findings", "url": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/findings/", "api": "https://crackedbuckeye.com/api/findings.json", "run": "2026-09-21T23:03:43-04:00", "source": "Cracked Buckeye inference engine (scripts/inference) over the county-year panel", "measures_analysed": 384, "pairs_tested": 59330, "count": 155, "note": "Correlations between Ohio's 88 counties, not between people, and not causes. rho is Spearman; partial_pop holds log population fixed; partial_struct also holds the rural-urban code and the Appalachian flag; wo_big2 is the same figure without Cuyahoga and Franklin; q is the false-discovery rate across every pair tested. Precedence is necessary for cause, not sufficient.", "findings": [ { "x": "qcew.emp.21__per10k", "y": "bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_mining_quarrying_oil_gas", "label_x": "Private-sector jobs in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction per 10,000 residents", "label_y": "Share of GDP from mining, quarrying and oil and gas", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "bls_qcew_private", "source_y": "bea_cainc4", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2024, "n": 84, "rho": 0.484573, "partial_pop": 0.556731, "partial_struct": 0.483868, "wo_big2": 0.560022, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "precedence", "r_within": 0.24328, "sign_share": 0.670455, "leads": "qcew.emp.21__per10k", "lag_years": 1.0, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "acs5.housing_units__per10k", "y": "pop.odh.age.65plus__per10k", "label_x": "Total housing units per 10,000 residents", "label_y": "Population, age 65 and over per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "population", "source_x": "acs5", "source_y": "odh_bridged_race", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2022, "n": 88, "rho": 0.68888, "partial_pop": 0.689956, "partial_struct": 0.660786, "wo_big2": 0.691668, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.443977, "sign_share": 0.75, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "zillow.zhvi", "y": "nonemp.receipts__per10k", "label_x": "Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier)", "label_y": "Nonemployer business receipts per resident", "topic_x": "housing", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "zillow_zhvi_county", "source_y": "nonemp2", "year_x": 2026, "year_y": 2021, "n": 88, "rho": 0.673876, "partial_pop": 0.623031, "partial_struct": 0.658002, "wo_big2": 0.631236, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.357164, "sign_share": 0.761364, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "acs5.bachelors_plus_pct", "y": "pop.odh.race.asian_pi__per10k", "label_x": "Share 25+ with a bachelor's degree or higher", "label_y": "Population, Asian or Pacific Islander (bridged race) per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "population", "source_x": "acs5", "source_y": "odh_bridged_race", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2022, "n": 88, "rho": 0.83412, "partial_pop": 0.617523, "partial_struct": 0.505207, "wo_big2": 0.607871, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.393647, "sign_share": 0.659091, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "zillow.zhvi", "y": "acs5.housing_units__per10k", "label_x": "Zillow Home Value Index (mid-tier)", "label_y": "Total housing units per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "housing", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "zillow_zhvi_county", "source_y": "acs5", "year_x": 2026, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": -0.673506, 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"label_x": "Dividends, interest and rent income per capita", "label_y": "Establishments, all industries per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "bea_cainc4", "source_y": "bls_qcew", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": 0.698831, "partial_pop": 0.64239, "partial_struct": 0.675643, "wo_big2": 0.651866, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.40682, "sign_share": 0.727273, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "cbp.employment__per10k", "y": "qcew.emp.31_33__per10k", "label_x": "Paid employees, all industries (CBP) per 10,000 residents", "label_y": "Private-sector jobs in manufacturing per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "cbp", "source_y": "bls_qcew_private", "year_x": 2023, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": 0.584534, "partial_pop": 0.708527, "partial_struct": 0.596294, "wo_big2": 0.715517, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.521957, "sign_share": 0.818182, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "cbp.annual_payroll_usd_thousands__per10k", "y": "qcew.emp.31_33__per10k", "label_x": "Annual payroll, all industries (CBP) per resident", "label_y": "Private-sector jobs in manufacturing per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "cbp", "source_y": "bls_qcew_private", "year_x": 2023, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": 0.552129, "partial_pop": 0.685826, "partial_struct": 0.547667, "wo_big2": 0.691744, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.23305, "sign_share": 0.670455, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "cbp.employment__per10k", "y": "qcew.emp.81__per10k", "label_x": "Paid employees, all industries (CBP) per 10,000 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"topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "bls_qcew_private", "source_y": "bls_qcew", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": 0.612017, "partial_pop": 0.403, "partial_struct": 0.439956, "wo_big2": 0.407273, "p": 0.000109, "q": 0.000415, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.239461, "sign_share": 0.681818, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "bea.gdp_share_real_chained2017_utilities", "y": "qcew.emp.22__per10k", "label_x": "Share of GDP from utilities", "label_y": "Private-sector jobs in utilities per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "bea_cainc4", "source_y": "bls_qcew_private", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2024, "n": 82, "rho": 0.428231, "partial_pop": 0.469588, "partial_struct": 0.433856, "wo_big2": 0.471644, "p": 1e-05, "q": 4.5e-05, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.338094, "sign_share": 0.818182, 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"demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "bea_cainc4", "source_y": "bls_qcew", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": 0.792205, "partial_pop": 0.768909, "partial_struct": 0.772006, "wo_big2": 0.771895, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.304071, "sign_share": 0.818182, "leads": null, "lag_years": null, "loo_shift": null, "loo_county": null, "loo_flip": false }, { "x": "qcew.emp.44_45__per10k", "y": "qcew.employment__per10k", "label_x": "Private-sector jobs in retail trade per 10,000 residents", "label_y": "Average annual employment, all industries per 10,000 residents", "topic_x": "demographics/economy", "topic_y": "demographics/economy", "source_x": "bls_qcew_private", "source_y": "bls_qcew", "year_x": 2024, "year_y": 2024, "n": 88, "rho": 0.736994, "partial_pop": 0.647344, "partial_struct": 0.672186, "wo_big2": 0.660993, "p": 0.0, "q": 0.0, "evidence": "co-movement", "r_within": 0.404347, "sign_share": 0.727273, "leads": 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